Oil Q4 2022 Basic Forecast: WTI May Fall as Growth Slows and Russia-Ukraine Conflict Evolves
As demand is cooled by slower growth, crude oil prices may continue to decline. OPEC+ maneuvers do not significantly impact crude oil prices. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine may be able to leave the battlefield.
In the third quarter of 2022, poor predictions for global economic development caused crude oil prices to collapse. With a loss of about 20%, the WTI benchmark is on track to end September with its worst three-month stretch since the start of the Covid-19 epidemic in 2020. The comparable Brent crude contract is expected to end the quarter with a loss of roughly 17%.
These losses occur even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine keeps the world’s supply disrupted. Additionally, the OPEC+ group, which consists of the producers’ cartel and its allies and is led mainly by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has shifted its focus from coordinated production rises to increases in output cutbacks after promising increases for the majority of the year. There seems to be a change in the market’s attention from erratic supply to decreasing demand.
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