Forex News May 31, 2022

 

Money markets

  • Following the release of inflation data, financial markets increased their bets on the ECB raising interest rates.
  • The ECB is expected to tighten by 115 basis points by the end of the year, with a 40 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in July. This represents an increase from the 110 basis points that were priced in at the end of last week. With headline inflation already above 8%, the story isn’t so much about rising energy prices.
  • The increase in price pressures is visible in all areas:

As a result, be wary that we might hear some murmurs about how those discussions are going, which could create a more nervous atmosphere for next week’s meeting.

  • Based on what policymakers have told us, it may not yet be a ‘live’ one, but let’s wait and see what the ECB message is after today to be sure.

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