Euro’s latest bounce

 

  • While European growth prospects were improving, the Russia-Ukraine conflict served as a wake-up call, adding to inflationary pressures and rising energy costs.
  • Since June last year, it has been rather one-way traffic for the euro against the dollar as the market focused a lot on the eurozone’s and the US’s policy and economic divergences. Given the prospect of a worsening economy, the window for tightening policy may be limited.
  •  But that hasn’t stopped markets from believing that the ECB can Deliver aggressively. As things stand, money markets have priced in 110 basis points of rate hikes by the Fed this year. That equates to at least four 25 basis point rate hikes, putting an end to Europe’s negative interest rate “experiment” – at least for the time being. 

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