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  As the clock approaches the Fed decision next Wednesday, the stock market is reacting negatively. Amazon shares are down more than 14% on the day, with the stock closing below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2009. Apple’s earnings were not as bad, but they warned about a revenue hit from China, which served as a reminder of the impact of the Covid lockdown on not only Apple, but others who rely on supply from that country. Meanwhile, the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday and has more or less signalled another 50 basis points and other tightenings through the end of the year as they try to break some of the inflationary run and get their target rate closer to the neutral rate of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. In anticipation of this, interest rates rose today, adding to the stock market’s woes. The 30-year yield is back above 3.00 percent after falling to 2.82 percent at the week’s low. The two-year yield has also returned to near...

  Yield Curve Since 2020, the yield curve has remained flat. Is the narrowing spread a sign of the coming US recession? Is the Fed still lagging behind? The US 2 vs 10 year spread ended the week near 21 basis points, near the lowest levels since the pandemic began in March 2020. During the pandemic, the spread fell to an all-time low of 8 basis points. The spread in 2022 reached a high of around 90 pips on January 10, but has since dipped. The rise in inflation, combined with the Fed’s reluctance to address it, gave traders the impression that the Fed was falling behind the curve. Finally, the Fed would have to act, and it would have to act quickly, choking off the economy in the process. The Russian/Ukraine war is certainly not helping, as inflation from the supply shock is now being pushed up by inflation from the war and its impact on commodities such as wheat and corn, as well as nickel and oil. When the market expected the Fed to “up” its tightening bias to 4-5 ti...

  White House Biden explains the ramifications of China’s assistance to Russia. Biden has described the consequences if China provides material support to Russia in his call with Xi. He told Xi that the US policy toward Taiwan has not changed. Xi appears to be in a difficult situation. Fed Barkin of the Fed says he is’very open’ to a 50 basis point move if inflation does not begin to settle. At the moment, the chances of a 50 basis point cut on May 4 are 47 percent. This debate will last a long time. • The yield curve is a ‘useful predictor,’ but not a ‘destiny.’ Balance-sheet reduction should begin’soon.’ Europe European stocks finish the session higher. Major indices end the week with solid gains The major European indices ended the day with mixed results, but all ended with solid gains. The following are the day’s closes: Germany’s Dax increased by 0.1 percent; France’s CAC increased by 0.1 percent; and the UK’s FTSE 100 increased by 0.3 percent. Ibex, Spain, +0....

  Japanese Yen: USD/JPY appears to be on track to test the April 2002 high (133.82) as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains reluctant to move away from its easing cycle, and the exchange rate may continue to appreciate over the coming days as the recent rally pushes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back into overbought territory. Aussie Dollar:  While RBA Governor Philip Lowe has mentioned that Ukraine is fueling uncertainty on the inflation outlook, the central bank has been adopting a more hawkish stance of late. Markets are now pricing in the first RBA rate hike in June. Kiwi Dollar:  NZD/USD appeared to be threatening the ascending channel from earlier this year as it slipped toward the 50-Day SMA (0.6799), but the exchange rate may continue to hold above the moving average as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the yearly high (0.7034). NZD/USD bounces back from a fresh monthly low (0.6806) as theUS Consumer Price Index (CPI)generates a bearish...

  Russia’s foreign ministry has issued a stern warning to western countries in response to Ukraine’s encouragement to strike within Russian territory. “Further provocation prompting Ukraine to strike against Russian facilities will be met with a harsh response,” said the spokesperson, Maria Zakharova. Vladimir Putin warns against Western intervention in Ukraine; Liz Truss says the conflict must serve as a “catalyst for change”; and António Guterres visits Kyiv. While Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak has defended Ukraine’s right to strike within Russia, he has stated that “Ukraine will defend itself in any way, including strikes on the warehouses and bases of the killers in Russia.” This is a right recognised throughout the world.” According to Russian state media, the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, which Russia claims to have captured, will begin using the rouble on May 1. Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, has reiterated that it is legal for Ukr...

  According to Michael Ashton, managing principal of Enduring Investments, a consulting and investing firm in Morristown, New Jersey, the United States had not seen annual core inflation much above 3% for the better part of 25 years prior to 2021.  Inflation, or the rise in consumer prices, is a slow erosion of your money over time, and it’s starting to bite hard.  The recent increase in the cost of fuel, used vehicles, groceries, and just about everything else is the type of sudden and systemic increase that can jolt most people’s daily spending. In the United States, inflation reached a national average of 7.5 percent in January, but that is unlikely to be your inflation rate, according to Ashton. In the eurozone, inflation reached 5% in the same month.  According to Ashton, because you may consume different items than the average person and may not live in an average location, your specific rate of inflation will most likely differ from the average....

  Japan USD/JPY drops from 131.00 to 130.35 after hitting 131.00 earlier in the day Excess FX volatility is undesirable Will take appropriate action if necessary Communicating closely with BOJ and currency authorities of other countries Again, these are merely verbal interventions, but they come at a critical time when USD/JPY is attempting to break above the 130.00 handle. The fact that the official is threatening intervention is enough to cause the yen to recoup some of its losses today, though USD/JPY is still up 1.5 percent even at around 130.35. Forex The USD/JPY is up 2% to 131.00 as the yen continues to weaken. There will be no catching the falling knife that is the yen. The yen’s decline is unstoppable at the moment, as the BOJ’s policy meeting decision today did not help the currency. USD/JPY has briefly touched the 131.00 handle and is up 2% on the day. The BOJ’s decision to maintain fixed-rate operations will do little to help the yen, and the fact that K...

The dollar list is up 4% this month, while the euro, yuan, and yen have fallen as merchants bet that loan fees will rise quicker in the United States than in some other significant economy. On Wednesday, the dollar reached its highest level since the early days of the pandemic and was on track for its best month since 2015, boosted by the prospect of US rate hikes and safe-haven flows fueled by slowing growth in China and Europe.  In the Asia session, the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 102.39, its highest level since March 2020. Meanwhile, concerns about Europe’s energy security drove the euro to a five-year low of $1.0635 after Russia’s Gazprom announced a reduction in gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.  “The dollar is currently the market’s hedge, while commodities such as gold are no longer as effective,” according to Citi analysts.  “The dollar is a ‘quality carry,'” they continued. “The ...

  European gas prices have risen by more than 20% as Russia uses its vast energy resources as a weapon against Ukraine’s European allies.  Moscow is following through on a threat to cut off gas supplies to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand for payment in rubles. The question now is which countries will be targeted next, as the speaker of the Duma has called for other “unfriendly” states to be cut off as well.  Russia’s Gazprom PJSC said it has halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and will continue to do so until the two countries agree to pay for the fuel in rubles, as demanded by Moscow. “We should do the same with other countries that are hostile to us,” Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on Telegram.  In principle, the European Union has rejected paying in rubles, claiming that it violates sanctions and strengthens Russia’s hand. But, as payment deadlines approach, governments across Europe must decide whether to stick to their ...

  Germany  Germany says it is closely coordinating with the EU on the Russian gas supply cut-off. So far, the German gas crisis team has not identified any gas supply bottlenecks. Concerned about the cessation of Russian gas supplies to partner countries  Germany, on the other hand, is unlikely to be on the chopping block just yet, as it will be Russia’s ace card in this game of poker. However, given the circumstances, it will be critical to monitor developments in the coming days/weeks. Equities  • Stocks in Europe are a little more cautious to begin the day, Eurostoxx is flat, Germany DAX is up 0.1 percent & France CAC 40 is up 0.2 percent  • UK FTSE +0.1%,Spain’s IBEX fell 0.1 percent.  The more cautious mood here comes against the backdrop of a sharp drop in US equities yesterday, even though US futures are finding some temporary relief. The entire gas ‘blackmail’ by Russia is also not helping the general economic mood, contributing...

  Traders believe that even if the Fed raises its federal funds rate target by 2.5 percentage points this year to 3 percent, it will not be enough to reduce inflation from around 8.5 percent to 2 percent over the next decade.  After policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric became more aggressive last week, the Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates at the fastest rate in 40 years. The issue is that bond traders continue to raise their longer-term inflation expectations, which is a very concerning development for the central bank, the economy, and financial markets. This week, 2-year Treasury note yields reached their highest level since 2018 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell endorsed the idea of a half-point increase when policymakers meet in two weeks, saying that many officials see ‘one or more’ such moves as appropriate. Nonetheless, long-term inflation expectations continued to rise.  The market-implied inflation rate for the next five to ten years has ri...

As per a report delivered Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, nations spent an aggregate of $2,113 billion on their militaries in 2021, up 0.7 percent in genuine terms from the earlier year. For the first time, global military spending has surpassed $2 trillion per year, and this figure is expected to rise further as European countries beef up their armed forces in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  According to SIPRI data, after a brief period of declining military spending between 2011 and 2014, outlays have increased for seven consecutive years. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several European governments have pledged a spending overhaul to improve the capabilities of their armed forces.  “Europe was at that point on a vertical pattern, and this pattern will speed up and strengthen,” said Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, overseer of SIPRI’s tactical consumption and arms creation program, via telephone. The upt...

  US S&P 500 fates are down 0.4 percent to start the meeting in the United States. The state of mind here is probably going to drain a portion of the confidence from the European open, with some wellbeing streams, it shows up, getting back to bonds. There hasn’t been much in that frame of mind of titles prompting the decay, however it fits with the more back and forth mind-set that has risen up out of time to time this month, however broad laziness in values has been the predominant topic. The USD/JPY rate has also fallen to 127.75 from around 128.10 earlier in the day. The dollar, on the other hand, is seen firmer, with EUR/USD falling to the day’s lows near 1.0700 and AUD/USD trimming its earlier advance from 0.7215 to 0.7190 at the moment. ECB The European Central Bank kept its benchmark loan fees unaltered, true to form, and adhered to its choice to end the upgrade program in the second from last quarter of this current year, however gave no extra subtleties,...

  Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of global wheat and barley exports. Ukraine is also a major corn supplier and the world leader in sunflower oil, which is used in food processing. The war may reduce food supplies at a time when prices are at their highest since 2011. Russian tanks and rockets are additionally compromising the food supply and vocations of individuals in Europe, Africa, and Asia who depend on the tremendous, rich farmlands of the Black Sea area, known as the “breadbasket of the world.” Ranchers in Ukraine have been compelled to forsake their fields as a great many individuals escape, battle, or endeavor to get by. Ports that transport wheat and other food staples around the world to be processed into bread, noodles, and animal feed are closed. There are also concerns that Western sanctions will disrupt grain exports from Russia, another agricultural powerhouse. The impact can be felt in Indonesia, where wheat is used to make instant no...

  Zimbabwe’s central bank said it has “no reason or appetite to raid” foreign-exchange accounts and denied allegations of a bank run and the raiding of US dollars made by the country’s largest industry lobby group.  In a position paper released on Friday, the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries urged the central bank to discontinue its weekly foreign currency auctions and emphasised the growing use of the Zimbabwean dollar. The lobbying group also mentioned “raiding” of foreign currency accounts. “The impressions depicted therein are unfortunate and uncalled for, as they have the potential of destabilising financial markets and the country’s economic stability,” said John Mangudya, governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, in an emailed statement late Saturday. The central bank will not suspend the weekly foreign currency auction, as requested by the lobby group, because it will cause a shortage of goods and increase inflation, according to Mangudya.  Read...

  Yuan Yuan is being fried. As a result of renewed Chinese lockdown fears, sentiment has plummeted to its lowest level in a year. China’s yuan finished domestic trading on Monday at a one-year low against the dollar, extending losses after posting its worst week since 2015, as a worsening economic growth outlook drove investor concern that the currency had more room to fall. “The PBOC’s lack of intervention despite elevated downside volatility in the CNY may signal that China may be shifting to a more growth-oriented currency management at a time when tight containment measures pose significant risks to the country’s economic outlook,” ING said in a note. Germany The German government has raised its inflation forecast for this year to 6.1 percent due to the impact of the Ukraine war, up from 3.3 percent in January, according to a government document seen by Reuters. According to Reuters, the German government is raising its inflation forecast for this year to 6.1 per...

  The United States announced earlier this week that it will prohibit all imports of Russian oil and gas, while the United Kingdom indicated that imports will be phased out by the end of the year. The European Union intends to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds, but its plan is less drastic, owing in large part to the EU’s reliance on Russian energy.  Natural gas accounts for roughly a quarter of the eurozone’s energy generation, while Russia accounts for roughly one-third of the bloc’s imports. Any further disruptions in gas imports could have a significant impact on eurozone economic output and inflation. After Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that Moscow could halt natural gas exports to Germany and the rest of Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, natural gas has re-entered the spotlight. Natural gas is one of several commodities caught in the crossfire of the Ukrainian conflict, and if Russia suspends exports, the European economy co...

  The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center, Russia’s most recognised and impartial polling organisation, conducted a survey on Russian sentiments about the conflict on March 24-30 and published the results this month.  Under the banner “Russian Public Accepts Putin’s Spin on Ukraine Conflict,” they published their findings. According to the poll, 53% of the russians support their military involvement in ukraine. Putin is seen favourably by a similarly overwhelming majority.  However, it’s important to keep in mind that this isn’t the last word on the matter. The Russian government has forbidden the terms “war” and “invasion” to characterise what it is doing in Ukraine, according to the report’s authors. As a result, when polling Russians, the questioners chose the less scary terms “military operation” or “military action.”  In addition, the survey used the phrases “denazify” and “denazification” because it is how the Russian authorit...

  It’s anything but a great opportunity to be a fixed-pay financial backer at the present time. Misfortunes have been significant, and the underperformance of credit versus values is imperative. The misfortunes in 2022 have cleared out most of the increases made in the past five years. On Thursday, several members of the European Central Bank’s governing council stated that an increase in policy rates is possible this year. Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch even suggested that interest rates could rise above zero before the end of 2022.  A 2.6-trillion-euro ($2.8-trillion) index of total returns on euro-denominated high-grade debt is down 8.6 percent from its recent high in August. This is the steepest top to-box drop on record, outperforming the drop toward the beginning of the Covid pandemic and the worldwide monetary emergency over 10 years prior. The losses come as major central banks prepare to tighten monetary policy in order to combat runaway i...

  On the eleventh and twelfth of April, the territory of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) got somewhere in the range of 200 and 400 mm of downpour in 24 hours, uprooting many thousands, making billions of rands in harm framework, homes, and organizations, and raising the loss of life to north of 500. The rand has lost nearly 7% of its value against the strong dollar in the last four trading days. Prior to the recent USD/ZAR spike, the rand was one of the better performing currencies when compared to the dollar. The dollar is fundamentally strong, benefiting from a safe-haven appeal during the early stages of the Ukraine conflict but now benefiting from aggressive rate hike expectations for the remainder of 2022. The unwinding of the gamble adjusted item exchange, which is connected to worldwide rate climb cycles, decreases total interest (cash is more costly to acquire) and frequently brings about a log jam in development. USD/ZAR tried the 15.70 level and has since withdrawn fu...

  Dollar In European morning trade, the dollar remains firm across the board.  The dollar, along with the yen, is the session’s frontrunner, as we continue to see the same old themes play out as the weekend approaches.  Higher yields, a stronger dollar, and more sluggish equities appear to be the order of the day in April, and I don’t expect much to change before the FOMC meeting on 4 May.  EUR/USD is pinned down 0.3 percent to test 1.0800 again, though recent lows near 1.0760 may provide some additional support for the pair for the time being. The euro, on the other hand, is expected to struggle despite markets pricing in a more hawkish ECB. Meanwhile, the pound is in free fall following a break below 1.3000 in cable. The next key support is the 50% retracement level at 1.2830, and the pair is currently trading down 1% around 1.2890.  The USD/JPY is remaining relatively flat around 128.30, but this belies the more volatile action seen earlier, whe...

  Japan has not intervened directly in the foreign exchange market in more than a decade, and it has not intervened to support its currency in more than two decades. The yen’s precipitous drop has investors concerned that Japan will intervene in the open market to support the currency. A timeline of selected moves in FX markets by the Bank of Japan. 1973  – Japan and its monetary authorities decide to allow the yen to freely float against the US dollar.  1985  – The Group of Five industrial nations, forerunner to the G7, sign the Plaza Accord, agreeing that the dollar is overvalued and that they will take steps to weaken it.  February 1987  – Six of the G7 countries sign the Louvre Accord, which aims to stabilise currencies and halt the dollar’s general decline.  1988  – In Tokyo trade on January 4, the dollar falls to a post-World War II low of 120.45 yen. The Bank of Japan steps in to purchase dollars and sell yen.  1991–1992 ...

  According to a Credit Suisse research report, with countries led by China focusing on accumulating assets abroad rather than increasing foreign exchange (forex) reserves, global forex reserves as a share of GDP have fallen from 15.4 percent of GDP to less than 14 percent in the last six years. To avoid currency appreciation, countries such as India and Switzerland accumulated reserves rather than investing in foreign assets.  Global reserves grew steadily from US$ 2 trillion in 1999 to US$ 12 trillion by 2014, but then plateaued. “As a share of global GDP, they have risen from 5.5 percent in 2000 to 15.4 percent in 2014, but they are now below 14 percent,” according to Credit Suisse. Without the purchases of dollar assets by Switzerland and India to prevent the Swiss franc and rupee from appreciating, global forex reserves would have fallen in absolute terms as well. According to a Credit Suisse (Securities) India report, reserves have fallen sharply in China ...

  Equities Eurostoxx +0.1%, Germany DAX +0.2%, UK FTSE -0.2% European equities opened little changed. CAC 40 +0.2% in France & Spain +0.2% for the IBEX. European stocks had a positive day yesterday, but it’s difficult to gauge the mood in the larger picture because the gains are still being offset by the declines in early April. For example, the DAX is now nearly flat on the month, as the equities market continues to oscillate. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4 percent, Nasdaq futures are up 0.6 percent, and Dow futures are up 0.3 percent on the day. Eurozone Eurozone March final CPI +7.4 percent vs +7.5 percent y/y preliminary & Eurostat’s most recent data – 21 April 2022 The preliminary report can be found here. Despite a slight downward revision, eurozone inflation remains at a record high, rising 2.4 percent month on month. In the midst of ‘peak inflation’ talk, the focus will gradually shift to month-on-month numbers from now on. That may be more relevant, a...

  Russian inflation reached 16.7 percent on an annual basis in March, but the central bank reduced its key interest rate from 20 percent to 17 percent earlier this month in an effort to mitigate the impact of economic sanctions.  As tough international sanctions threaten to bring the Russian economy to its knees, Russian central bankers must balance consumer stockpiling, supply shocks, and a predicted slowdown in spending. The World Bank predicts that Russian GDP will contract by 11% this year, while the IMF forecasted an 8.5 percent contraction in 2022 and a further 2.3 percent contraction in 2023 on Tuesday. Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the CBR more than doubled its main interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent in late February, as the country’s ruble currency hit a record low amid a barrage of punitive international sanctions.  Despite monthly inflation reaching 7.61 percent in March, the highest rate since 1999, the central ban...

  The deaths of three elderly patients are the city’s first since authorities imposed a lockdown to combat China’s largest COVID-19 outbreak.  Shanghai, China, has announced the first deaths in a COVID-19 outbreak that has shut down the financial hub for weeks and sparked widespread outrage and rare protests.  The city said in a statement on Monday that three people infected with COVID-19 died the day before.  All three were elderly individuals with underlying medical conditions.  They “deteriorated into severe cases after being admitted to the hospital, and died after all efforts to resuscitate them proved ineffective,” according to the city.  It went on to say that two of the deceased were women aged 89 and 91, and the third was a 91-year-old man. The deaths were confirmed by the municipal health commission.  On Monday, it also reported 22,248 domestic cases of COVID-19.  While the figures are low in comparison to other global outb...

  Eurozone Eurozone February trade balance -€7.6 billion vs -€27.2 billion previously, Latest Eurostat data – 20 April 2022  ,Prior -€27.2 billion. The eurozone trade deficit has carried over to February, as the rise in energy prices has resulted in a significant increase in the value of energy imports. To put this in context, payment for imports increased by 38.8 percent year on year, while revenue from exports increased by only 17.0 percent year on year. Looking back, the eurozone trade balance is rarely in deficit territory, but this was the fourth consecutive month, albeit less than the record €27.2 billion deficit in January Dollar The greenback is lower across the board in European morning trade. The drop occurred earlier in Asia Pacific trading, when USD/JPY hit a bit of an air pocket. Since then, the dollar has remained weak, with the EUR/USD now up 0.4 percent to 1.0830. The weekly chart shows support at 1.0800, but recent lows indicate that buyers are...

  Before engaging in any form of live trading, it is critical to have the proper foundational base to trade forex. Investing time in learning the do’s and don’ts of forex trading will benefit traders in the long run. All traders will make mistakes at some point, but minimising them and eliminating repeat offences must be practised and become expected behaviour. The primary goal of this article is to stick to a trading plan that includes proper risk management and a suitable review system. If you are new to forex, make sure to read our New to Forex guide to learn the fundamentals of forex trading. TRADING BASED ON EMOTIONS Emotional trading frequently leads to irrational and ineffective trading. To compensate for previous losses, traders frequently open additional positions after losing trades. These trades typically lack technical and fundamental educational support. Trading plans exist to avoid this type of trading, so it is critical that the plan is strictly adhere...

  Oil prices maintain a critical trendline in the face of a volatile trading environment. Natural gas prices in the United States soared to 14-year highs this morning, escalating inflation concerns and raising new concerns about a potential US energy crisis. The US Henry Hub benchmark has now gained more than 100% for 2022, making it one of the best performing commodities of the year. Temperatures in the US Northwest and Midwest have been colder-than-average for this time of year, increasing demand for heating gas.  According to the National Weather Service, those below-average mercury readings are expected to last for the next six to ten days. The Ukraine conflict has also resulted in an increase in liquefied natural gas exports.  These factors have depleted US inventory levels, raising concerns about domestic supply. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, total working gas in underground storage has fallen significantly below its ...

  European Trade So far in European morning trade, market tones are mixed: bond yields are rising, the dollar is falling, and stocks are holding steady. There are some mixed undertones playing out in European morning trade so far, as markets are likely settling in after the Easter holiday. • The dollar is trading slightly lower (except against the yen and franc), even as bond yields rise. EUR/USD is up 0.2 percent to trade back above 1.0800, but it still faces near-term resistance from its 100-hour moving average at 1.0823. GBP/USD is also still flirting with daily support at 1.3000, having recently traded up to 1.3030 from a low of 1.2990. The USD/JPY remains a notable exception, with the yen falling like a fly across the board.  The pair is currently trading at 128.30, up 1.1 percent. In other news, European stocks are still being pushed lower by nearly 1% across the board. Furthermore, US futures have erased earlier gains, with the S&P 500 futures currentl...

  Regardless of experience, all traders make trading mistakes; understanding the logic behind these mistakes may help to limit the snowball effect of trading impediments. Human error is common in the forex market, and it frequently leads to the same trading mistakes. These trading blunders are common, especially among novice traders. Being aware of these mistakes can assist traders in becoming more efficient in their forex trading.  These errors are part of a continuous learning process in which traders must become familiar with them in order to avoid repeating wrongdoings.  Consider these common trading mistakes to avoid before committing to forex trading, as they contribute to a large proportion of unsuccessful trades.   HAVING NO TRADING PLAN Traders who do not have a trading plan tend to be haphazard in their approach due to a lack of consistency in strategy. Trading strategies define the guidelines and approaches to each trade. This prevents tr...

  The 1987 Oliver Stone film ” Wallstreet ” is arguably the most famous film about the stock market.  It made Michael Douglas famous for his portrayal of Gordon Gekko, a ruthless, cutthroat investor with seemingly unrestrained greed. We’re all familiar with his “Greed is Good” speech and the cultural impact it had.  Here are his six life-changing quotes:  ·      “Information is the most valuable commodity I am aware of.”  ·      Knowledge comes from information, and information comes from knowledge.  ·      We live in a world where today’s cutting-edge technology may be rendered obsolete tomorrow.  ·      Know your industries and markets, as well as the pitfalls and traps that may await you.  ·       The more thorough your research, the better. . “I don’t toss darts at a board.” I plac...

  Bonds There is no respite in bond selling during the Easter holiday. Just when you thought the bond market was about to take a breather at some point last week, yields shot up again today. Ten-year Treasury yields have now reached their highest level since December 2018, as the sell-off intensifies, inching closer to the 3% mark. In light trading, the move continues to support the dollar while keeping the yen under pressure. Today’s US yields are as follows: 2-year yields are up 4.9 basis points to 2.494 percent. 5-year yields are up 6.3 basis points to 2.823 percent. 10-year yields are up 5.8 basis points to 2.866 percent. 30-year yields increased by 2.5 basis points to 2.942 percent. As a result, it is tightening the screws in bond markets around the world. Notably, 10-year JGB yields remain close to the implicit cap of 0.25 percent, putting pressure on the BOJ to defend it. As Treasury yields rise, the dollar remains firmer across the board, despite a more defensive ris...

  Forex The GBP is the strongest currency, while the JPY is the weakest. The USD is slightly higher. The US and European markets are closed, but the forex market is still open. The GBP is the strongest currency, while the JPY is the weakest. The major currencies are all very close together, with the JPY being the most notable outlier as it continues its upward trend and trades to a new high dating back to 2002. With US interest rates continuing to rise, the spread to Japan equivalent yields remains wide. The spread between the US 10-year yield and the Japanese 10-year yield is currently 253 basis points, which is close to the recent cycle high of 2.588. At 9:15 a.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release data on industrial production and capacity utilisation. It also appears that the April NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The following are the IP and capacity utilisation expectations: capacity utilisation was 77.8 percent versus 77.6...

  Palladium has to be one of the clear winners of the 2022 commodity rally.  Analysts recently raised their price forecast for Q1 2022 to $2,800/oz due to strong demand from the auto sector, which consumes 85 percent of the world’s palladium, and to $2,700/oz by the end of Q2 2022 due to strong demand from the auto sector.  Russia mines around 40% of the world’s palladium, so any continuous stock worries are most certainly justified as long as the conflict in Ukraine proceeds. The metal, which is commonly used in catalytic converters, recently skyrocketed to record highs as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it is now trading 30% higher than it was at the start of the year. However, those in the industry believe that things are just getting started, and that this precious metal has the potential to shine even brighter. According to Impala Platinum, the world’s biggest maker of platinum bunch metals, the worldwide palladium rally could keep go...

  Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its inflation forecast to near 2% while maintaining its easy policy stance, according to a report. According to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the BOJ’s thinking According to the report, the BOJ will raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to near 2% later this month at its policy meeting, owing to a surge in global commodity prices, which has resulted in higher energy and food inflation. However, the Japanese central bank will continue to emphasise the importance of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy in order to aid the economy’s recovery from the pandemic. According to sources, the BOJ will likely raise its core consumer inflation forecast to more than 1.5 percent from the current estimate of 1.1 percent. China China says it will conduct military drills around Taiwan today. This follows an unannounced visit to Taiwan by six US lawmakers.  Read More... EDGE-FOREX  #edgefore...

  The US economy is currently experiencing extreme inflation, with annual inflation reaching 7.9 percent, the highest on record in 40 years.  With a rich history dating back to Ancient Egypt, gold has always been the most prized metal of mankind for its artistic and cultural value. Demand for gold-backed investment products increased as well, with gold ETFs seeing net inflows of 187.3 tonnes (US$11.8 billion) in March, bringing total holdings just below the August 2020 record of US$240.3 billion.  It is a symbol of wealth and the focal point of almost every special social gathering in many parts of the world. More than 1,400 metric tonnes of the metal are consumed each year for jewellery and other decorations. But the reason to buy gold goes beyond the customary yearly celebrations or the need to display affluence; people can also view the metal as a form of investment and growing their wealth. This is especially true during times of high inflation, where ...

  China Remarks by China President Xi Jinping; China must maintain strict “dynamic COVID-19 clearance” policy Control and prevention measures must not be relaxed; and the impact of COVID-19 on economic and social development must be minimised. This will not alleviate much of the pressure in Shanghai, where the pandemic’s largest outbreak has occurred since the pandemic’s inception. For context, Shanghai reported more than 25,000 cases in its most recent update. US Futures For the time being, US futures remain higher, with earnings taking centre stage. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6 percent on the day.  European indices have also recovered earlier losses to be up 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent, though the DAX is still down 0.3 percent. However, US futures are continuing to rise, with the S&P 500 and Dow futures both up 0.6 percent, and the Nasdaq futures up 0.8 percent. Read More... #edgeforex #forextrading #forexsignals #forex #trading #covid #prevention #china ...

  According to the latest report released Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 8.5 percent in March compared to the same month last year. Consumer price increases in the United States accelerated in March, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures as supply chain disruptions and shortages persisted across the economy.  This was the fastest increase since December 1981. This followed a 7.9 percent increase year on year in February. According to economists there was and expectation of an 8.4 percent increase in March prior to the release of the report.  Prices increased 1.2 percent month over month in March, following a 0.8 percent monthly increase in February.  According to the BLS, food, shelter, and gasoline were among the major contributors to the most recent increase in inflation. In fact, the index that tracks gas prices rose 18.3 percent month on month in March, accounting for more than half of th...

  Three fighters were harmed by “a toxic substance” in an assault on Monday, as per Ukraine’s Azov regiment. However, no evidence of the use of chemical weapons has been presented. The United States and the United Kingdom have stated that they are investigating reports that Russian forces used chemical weapons in their attack on the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss of the United Kingdom said officials were working to “urgently” investigate what she called the war’s “callous escalation.” The Pentagon portrayed the chance of involving the weapons as “profoundly concerning.” Western countries have cautioned that the utilization of substance weapons would be a risky heightening of the contention and have vowed to make a decisive move assuming Russia leads such assaults. The Chemical Weapons Convention does not classify phosphorus as a chemical weapon, but using it as an incendiary weapon near civilians is prohibited. Read More...    #edgef...

  Germany If Russia stops supplying gas now, Germany’s reserves would only last until late summer. According to the German network regulator chief, speaking to Die Zeit newspape: The reserves would only last until late summer or early fall, and German households would have to forego heating privileges in the event of a gas supply emergency. With wholesale prices also surging today, there’s doubt that lawmakers will be persuaded to change their stance on an embargo on Russian oil and gas for the time being. The EU will continue to apply pressure on that front, but Germany is likely to stand firm, and the situation described above speaks for itself. Dollar The dollar remains slightly firmer in European morning trade Read More... EDGE-FOREX  #edgeforex #forextrading #forexsignals #forex #germany #gas #network #summer #dollar #reserves #energy #cryptocurrency #bitcoin   

  Since the start of the Ukrainian conflict, Western banks and other financial intermediaries have been blocking bond payments while they investigate the legal implications of the sanctions, effectively shutting Russian borrowers out of the global financial system. Due to payment complications, Russian companies missed deadlines, according to a CDS panel, and a failure-to-pay credit event occurred on Monday. After failing to make a bond interest payment, Russian Railways JSC was declared in default by a derivatives panel. According to the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee, a failure-to-pay credit event occurred when a coupon due on March 14 did not reach investors by the end of a 10-day grace period. The first such decision since Russia was slapped with extensive sanctions that complicated financial transactions; • The decision may set a precedent for the Russian government and local companies in a similar situation. Last month, state-claimed Russian Railway...

  The country’s foreign reserves fell by $11.173 billion to $606.475 billion, falling for the fourth week in a row and the steepest weekly drop on record as the rupee fell in value. As the rupee fell in value, forex reserves fell by nearly $12 billion for the fourth week in a row, the steepest weekly drop on record.  In the last four weeks, India’s reserves have fallen by nearly $27 billion.  According to the latest Reserve Bank of India data, the currency has taken a hit due to fears of widening external deficits as a result of the Ukraine war and a rising dollar, which has been boosted by the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on monetary policy tightening. The country’s forex reserves have fallen for the fourth week in a row. The reserves fell by $2.03 billion to $617.648 billion in the previous week, according to the RBI’s weekly statistical supplement, which ended on March 25.  The most recent record steepest week after week drop for possible ...

  Federal Reserve The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May and June, according to a Reuters poll. 85 of 102 economists forecast a 50 basis point rate hike in May 56 of 102 economists forecast a follow-up 50 basis point rate hike in June Fed funds rate now expected to be at 2.00 percent – 2.25 percent at the end of the year (previously 1.50 percent – 1.75 percent) Fed funds rate then expected to be at 2.50 percent – 2.75 percent at the end of 2023 That’s an aggressive stance, but it’s consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Fed policymakers recently. But, once again, how will the economy react to all of this when rate hikes aren’t exactly the answer to rampant inflation? It will be interesting to see how the Fed can get away with an unhindered path to 2% given the economic backdrop. Read More... #edgeforex #forextrading #forexsignals #trading #basis #federalreserve #fed #euro #ireland #russia #ukraine #cryptocurrency #bitcoin